Name: Future of Finance 2024: Biden, Trump and What the 2024 Election Means for Finance
Uploaded: 2024-05-17
Duration: 17 min 37 s
Description: Anthony Scaramucci, Founder and Managing Partner, SkyBridge Capital, Andrew Yang, Co-chair, Forward Party Moderator: Jeff John Roberts, Fortune

Anthony Scaramucci, Founder and Managing Partner, SkyBridge Capital, Andrew Yang, Co-chair, Forward Party Moderator: Jeff John Roberts, Fortune

Future of Finance 2024: Biden, Trump and What the 2024 Election Means for Finance

Conferences

Hello again, everyone. Let's get into it. I've got two very lively gentlemen who do not lack personality. I try them turn it down for at least the first five minutes and leave the partisan hats off and just tell us a down the middle take on what a Biden re election would mean for the economy and what a Trump re election means for the economy. Oh, ok. All right. Go ahead, Andrew. We know what you think of it. I'm very happy to, uh, uh, so I, I'm in the camp that thinks Trump would be a catastrophe. Um, a as our president again. Um, he's learned from his mistakes last time, which is hiring responsible adults who sometimes tamp down his policy desires and instincts. I unfortunately think he's the favorite to win. I think if the election was held today he would win. And the question is whether something changes over the next six months. One of the things that's under reported folks is that Biden's main advantage is money, but they spent $35 million in the swing states trying to boost his numbers and it has had no impact which augers very, very poorly for the fact that money is going to swing the approximately 7% of genuine swing voters in those states. Uh So right now, my projection would be Trump wins. Some very, very bad things happen uh administratively and institutionally, but the effect on the economy would be unclear. So I think the superficial analysis, particularly from people on Wall Street, Trump's better for the economy and then they list all these policy things that he would do that would be better for the economy. But I think he would be terrible for the economy and terrible for the country. And I'll tell a quick story and this happened in the White House and it happened on a Wednesday. The reason I know it happened on a Wednesday, I was only there for one Wednesday. So I know I know what happened on a Wednesday and it was him and Paul Ryan and they're bigger than me and they were fighting in the oval office and, and Trump was putting his finger on Paul and he was saying you work for me. You work for me. Polls again. I'm like, I, I don't work for you. I'm in a totally separate article. I don't work for you. And Trump was looking over at me. He's like, is he right? He doesn't work for me. I'm like, no, he doesn't work for you and Trump doesn't like that. And the people in this room that really understand the constitution is what has made this economy, the predictability of the laws, the separation of the powers, the inability to create an autocracy in the country for the last 250 years has protected your businesses because the sanctity of the laws allow for the free flow of capital and people own their property in this country. It's backed up by the court system and there's 900 years of legal precedent. Mr Trump doesn't like any of this and he's an orange wrecking ball for this society and he's gonna come in with a group of people that believe in something called unitary executive power. If you don't know what that means, you should google it somewhere tonight and you should understand what the Heritage Foundation believes and what Mr Trump believes that they want to expand and knock out the other two branches and make him uber powerful. And when that happens, you get what happens in every other autocracy, a really bad system and a lack of predictability in the law. So, yes, superficially, he sounds better for the economy, but he's a disaster for the economy. He's a disaster for the world and he's a disaster for your business and you gotta be really careful. I just say one last thing, there are 40 of us that are speaking out against him. One of them was on the ballot with him last year or 24 years ago, the president picked a guy named Mike Pence anybody remember him? He was the vice president. Ok. They were, they were, they were, they were chanting kill Mike Pence on the sixth of January in 2021. You know, Mike Pence said, you know, I've had enough of this. Ok? And under no circumstances, will I endorse or support Donald J Trump. There are 39 other people that have said the exact same thing I submit to everybody here rhetorically, let's say all of us work for a car company and we say, hey, this car sucks and they didn't build it, right. It's gonna kill your family. We, we work for an auto airline manufacturer so this plane is gonna fall out of the sky or we work for a drug company said the drug is gonna kill you. What is going on in this country where you have super smart, very patriotic people, guys like general Kelly who are not even partisan. Ok, Anthony, I gotta cut you off. I think we get it and I think, you know, for the record, I, I agree the institutions held last time. I, I don't know if the central bank and so on would hold this time, but we might find out let's switch it to Biden. I mean, not a plan to end the central bank. By the way, I've heard of that. Let's, let's, let's go to Joe Biden for a sec. I mean, I think the profligacy with the debts probably not just getting started, by the way, just saying getting warmed up. J you think Biden is better? But do you think there would be any economic pivots? Would you know Elizabeth Warren still be running her over the financial market? What would be different? It would be more of the same. Go for dinner. No, no, it would depend upon what happens to the House and the Senate. I mean, projections are Republicans take the Senate and then the House, it's gonna be pretty evenly split. But a lot of Biden's policies have yet to be fully implemented. I mean, they authorized $1.2 trillion of which just came out that maybe 18% of it's been spent or committed or allocated. So uh that they bit off a giant chunk and then they're still trying to figure out how to chew it. Um So if, if you have a second Biden administration, then the other 80 some odd percent of that gets deployed and spent in various ways. Uh If Trump comes in, then Trump will probably try and pull that back. Um So I, I don't imagine any whip sawing in terms of economic policy, uh depending upon who controls the legislative branches. And I do wanna say to you all, if you want to read more about Anthony's 10 or 11 days uh as coms director, he has a book out this week uh that goes in and, and don't, don't hurt my feelings and we're good friends. Don't hurt my feelings. It was 11 days. Don't get me out of that last thing. The big day I got, I got fired in L A. It was a big day, like a 10% Anthony. How do you feel? It's, it's actually become like a, a no, a short, a very short tenure is now with Scaramucci of work. Like, I think it's great. You know, listen, when the only problem is people are very sensitive. Ok? I, I tweeted out that Liz Trust lasted 4.1. Scaramucci's approximately 45 days. She got very upset. Ok. I, I tweeted out that Kevin mccarthy lasted 24.5. Scaramucci as speaker, I got very upset. I mean, these people, a bunch of babies just flat. We've got all the big topics. I gotta go granular for a second carried interest loophole. Do you have a hedge fund? Right, Anthony. And you get that, that very favorable tax break and every, every couple years they're gonna repeal it because who doesn't want to take money away from the hedge fund guys? And have you guys pay lower taxes than the rest of us? Is that you see that being repealed any time? Is that what I mean? I'm gonna, I'm gonna channel David Rubenstein. He said, God has ordained that was the 11th commandment on the tablets that we're gonna keep the carried interest loophole. I, I pay 50. I don't know about you guys. But I live here in New York. I pay 52% marginal tax. I'm a minority partner in my own life now. So the dollar comes in 52 cents goes to Eric Adams Cathy Hole and Joe Biden. I get to keep 48 cents for my family. I am totally fine with that if they want to end the carried interest loophole, if that's gonna benefit the society, I'm totally fine with that. OK. We have a huge disparity in the society right now and I don't wanna be a rich guy living in a barb wired security mcmansion uh while my fellow neighbors are suffering. So me personally, I have never complained about my taxes, don't mind paying them. I would love to audit the city or the state and see where the taxes have gone because it doesn't make sense that we have the budgets that we have and we have services. Yeah, it's like spending, that's why he was my guy for May, didn't work out. Yeah, man, I would have been happy to open the books. This would have been good times. Um And they wouldn't want somebody like Andrew over the books because you know, come on, it's bad $2 trillion. They can't find $2 trillion. Uh So III I want to comment on the dynamics of the economy. So you, you have capital on one side, then you have technology on the other and they're commingling to accelerate the most extreme winner, take all economy in the history of the world and, and the, and so you can take shots at addressing some of these uh inequities, but the inequities are getting more powerful and faster all the time. One thing I joke about, uh is that A I is getting faster and smarter and we are lucky not to get slower or dumber in any given day. Like if we say the same, it was a good day. You know what I mean? Um But then if, if you extrapolate that society wide, we're going to displace millions and millions of workers. And even now major corporations are cutting high priced employees because they're figuring out, wait a minute, I'm paying you 200 I can pay this person 75 and stack an A I on top of them and voila or it's like I can replace, I mean, there are 2 million Americans who work at call centers still? When will A I replace them? Now, what day of the week is it? People are like, oh, it's Tuesday, I'll get around to do it by Friday. So there are all of these trends that are speeding up. And the question is, what does the real economy of the future look like if you're trying to prioritize human values in an era where we're going to lose in epic fashion to the machine? And all of the people are like, oh, we're gonna, you know, work with the A I, we're going, we're going to reskill people. Uh It, it's generally, uh wishful thinking slash nonsense slash good for the, the press release. And then you, you go back and actually, you know, do what you're gonna do within your organization. So, the reason why I've been pro crypto this entire time is that, in my opinion, the only way out of this is to create a Multivariate economy that rewards various human activities independent of whether it's actually capitally efficient, if you measure it in just one axis, which is the monetary axis. So imagine a currency that was rewarding arts and creativity. And another one that was for nurturing and caring and education. And another one that was for health and wellness and you had millions of people pursuing these activities. That to me was the promise of cryptocurrencies and it has failed, it has failed because what crypto has primarily been used for. And, you know, I'm still pushing in this direction because it's necessary, but it's failed because it's primarily being used as an engine of financial speculation and as a hedge to collapsing confidence in fiat currencies. And that's a use, you know, you know, like, congratulations. Um but it's not addressing any of the big picture issues that in my mind are just speeding up all the time. So we're here about future of finance at the 24 election. To me that has to be the vision of the economy that we're moving towards as quickly as possible. Anthony, I'd like to ask you that A I has come up a lot today. It's coming up everywhere. What do we do with this risk of a whole bunch of just superfluous Americans? It's, you know, sucks to be poor in America right now. What if A I, you know, makes, you know, another 1020 million redundant? What, how do we address this? Yeah, I'm, I'm, I'm more optimistic and I think what ends up happening is you get these s curves that are transformative and they never work out exactly the way the doom and gloom people say. And so we had that problem with automotive, we had that problem with factories and automation and factories. We have that problem, believe it or not in telecom and delivery of mail. And so I'm a little bit more optimistic. There's a professor at Oxford by the name of Nick Bostrom. You may know who he is. He wrote the very famous 2001 memo about, are we or are we not in a simulation? He has a brand new book coming out right now. I interviewed him on my podcast and he's talking about what could be a deep utopia where you do have the people that are been displaced, but there's enough productivity in the economy where they're getting the universal income that Andrew is talking about. And all of a sudden people are actually in a weird way happier. And so that, that is quite possible. I'll just leave you with two quick things. Tom Malthus said in the 18 forties we were going to starve. He left out all the technology, the exponential technology of more people dying from obesity related illnesses and starvation. In 1985 at Tufts University had a professor, professor tell me we were out of oil. Some of us in this room are old enough to remember. Peak oil theory. Uh, oil gonna lose, lose the oil. In 2010, we have more oil than we know what to do with. And so I don't believe the gloom and doomers when it comes to people and innovation. I believe that we are problem solvers and if we get the right leadership, moral leadership in government and in politics we can solve these problems. Yeah. I think it's important to be optimistic. You're not the only one who has a view in Cola who I think we saw on Laguna Beach predicts that we'll get to a point where you all have to work if you want to. And let's hope it works out that way. Oh, yeah. I, I think that of abundance is possible if you had a functional government. Uh, and then I'll just leave it at that. You know, the hard part, we've got to touch crypto because it, we all like it. I probably half the room hates it, but there's you know, a giant crypto campaign, you know, vote crypto. And I know my reporter Leo is like, there's only one person who's going to vote based on crypto, but, you know, maybe not. Do you think, like we saw this movement in the Senate today? Do you think crypto could affect the election at the margins? Oh, yeah. I mean, this is, this election is gonna get decided by a razor thin margin in probably uh three states. Uh And the margin last time was, let's call it 60,000 votes in three states. Um So can you imagine that being swayed by some people staying at home because of something that, that uh you know, they don't like the president's stance on or crypto um or uh any of another number of other micro variables. I mean, 50,000 in a country of 330 million is not many, but it's certainly a much smaller number than our crypto enthusiasts uh at, at various in various parts of the country. Um And some of those interest groups are uh spending money. Uh you know, so it, it could easily be a tipping, tipping factor. So, you know, here's what I would say. If you read crypto Twitter or X, it's a huge deal. I don't think it's a huge deal, but I do agree with Andrew on the margin. It could stop young voters from voting for somebody does have that crypto. So I would just say if you looked at a Nash game theory analysis, it would probably be better for you to be pro crypto because you're not gonna lose any voters being pro crypto, but you may lose some not being crypto, but I'll just submit this to you. There's a movie, there's two movies playing at your local cinema in November on election day. One is weekend at Bernie's. Ok. We know that we know that right. And the other one is One Flew Over the Cuckoo's Nest. Ok. So you can choose between an elderly guy that's somewhat forgetful or a lunatic that needs a lobotomy. Ok. I'm going with the elderly guy. Somewhat forgetful. Fair enough. Ok. Let, let's, let's end on a high note, um, backstage Anthony was telling me, uh, he, he, he was, he offered his names for um, uh KMF. Uh ask your neighbor if you don't know what those stand for, but apparently it's New York Post. You can't do it again on stage to look it up, but it was, it was a good answer. But let's end with um, yeah. Um, very, very. Ok, quickly, Anthony. How far the Knicks gonna go? All right. So I'm an eternal optimist and I've been waiting for three, I've been waiting for three decades. So I'm gonna say all the way that, but here's the thing, the applause line, man. But here's the thing. If they don't go all the way this year, I think they actually have the chemistry in place for next year with a couple of changes. So I'm very happy. Very happy. All right. And my last serious question, name, someone in finance, in the finance industry in New York you admire morally and as this sort of accomplished financial professional, professional, you want to go first. I mean, they, they're a number but I suppose given the context of where we are, I like and admire Mike Novogratz. I think he's his own freaking human being. He has his own judgment. He's made calls that have been right wrong. Popular, unpopular, but he's a stand up genuine human being. So II, I love Mike. So since I was already taken, I'll say Larry Fink and I'll just say this the smartest people when they get something wrong or they get new facts, they change their mind. And Larry Fink was very negative on Bitcoin and crypto. Uh He spent the time and the energy and he moved towards Bitcoin and he had the most successful ETF launch in history this year with his Bitcoin ETF and a sign of great leadership is getting things wrong, taking risks, being able to admit that you got something wrong and adapt in pivoting. And I think Larry represents that. Ok, we're out of time. Thank you, gentlemen. Please give it up for Andrew Yang. Thank you.