[ MUSIC ] Thank you, thank you, ladies and gentlemen it's a great honour for me to have a presentation about energy geopolitics. IEA world international energy agency is always disclosing world energy [ UNKNOWN ]. Two years ago, it mentioned about four revolutions in the energy market. Fast is the shale revolution in the United States. United States is now the largest producer of oil, and probably with gas and this is a really dominant. And status, so US is now enjoying energy dominance of the world. Mr. Trump's policy of this fossil fuel is magnificent. [ BLANK_AUDIO ] Second revolution, solar photographic revolution. [ UNKNOWN ] said, Solar portable take will be the cheapest source of new electricity in the near years. And this is really surprising for me. Solar has been very expensive energy before. But the future will be very different. What will happen to coal? What will happen to gas? What will happen to nuclear energy if that is the case? Third revolution is China. Green China, China's green revolution changed the world, by using more gas and renewable energy. The force is electrification. Energy is served through electricity Not [ UNKNOWN ] but digitalization, electric vehicle, AI, Big Data, this is the fourth revolution. Look, out of this four revolutions, three of them that latter three of them are happening in China or led by China. While US is still conventional leader China is changing the world by three revolutions in the renewables. But China is not doing it for sustainability. This is the geopolitical strategy of China, because by using more renewables, China can reduce dependency of oil from Middle East very unstable Middle East. Or from Russia by gas or from gas and oil from United States. This is energy independence policy of China. US is using renewed for fossil gas and oil China's using renewables who will win in this game? China is the largest user of energy. US is the second largest. This is the big change in energy market and everybody must be aware and impacted by this contrast. This is the oil producers game US the green is us is taking advantage of high oiled price. The red is oil price and increasing the production by 6 million barrels per day half of the Saudis capacity Saudi Arabia is blue and yellow is Russia. And now US is the largest producer and to face with shale challenge, Russia and Saudi Arabia made a coalition by reducing production and pushing the price up but that benefit always goes to the US. This is a big fight between US and Russia, Saudi Arabia. Where the Middle East oil goes in the future. China, India, Japan, Korea. Other importer of oil from middle east. 90 % of boys will go to Asia. Look, the United States will no longer need oil from the Middle East. Will US continue to defend the Persian Gulf free navigation of the Strait of Hormuz? This is a role for China, India, Korea, Japan and Asian countries. Japan and China is fighting in the East China Sea or South China Sea, but we have to work closely together in the Persian Gulf. This is the Persian Gulf Hormuz Strait. If this closure happens in the Persian Gulf, we are going to lose 60 million barrels per day of supply. He was problem for Asia Im am proposing to face this kind of shortage China should join IEA International Energy Agency together with India it is only limited to the way cd but it is China's necessity. To defend energy security of supply disruption of oil, together with India. India applied officially to be the member. It is China who should follow and come together the IEA. This is a really big change, because United States is no longer need IEA They are energy independent. The beneficiary of [ UNKNOWN ] is China in India. And also China is going to be the largest importer of LNG gas. United States is the largest exporter of the gas in the future. Two major players of the gas are fighting in the trade war. This will certainly impact the gas market. [ BLANK_AUDIO ] China is trying to use one belt, one road of pipeline and Diversity of the sources of gas. But this protection of the ceiling show the concern, raise the concern of the United States. This map, I copied from American Defence Department's China report. Every year it's getting more and more details and very interesting. Energy issue is geopolitical and national security or military related issue. This chart is depicting countries by gas or import dependency in the vertical line in the horizontal line is oil import dependency China now imports about 60 % of oil and 40 % of gas but eventually 80 % of gas and 50 % of gas should come from importation. India is much worse situation. Japan and Korea importing 100 % of oil and gas. It can not be worse. United Stated moved different direction. They are exporting already gas and exporting oil very soon. So US position is much closer to Russia and Middle East in a geopolitical advantage. China and India should work closely with [ UNKNOWN ] country like Japan, Korea, and Europe. To defend its energy security by joining. India is much worse situation so India applied first, but it's now that China's term cost of solar and battery is going so low. So China strategies and other strategies connecting grid lines around the country and together with neighboring countries, this big global energy interconnection is built on road initiative of electricity grid. very strategic geopolitical move of China. Asia SuperGrid. This is a. Japanese idea Matthias is from the chairman of the SoftBank is selling this idea by connecting. This is another interesting collective energy security and sustainability for Asia. Japan and China should work closely with Making these kind of scenario in the future. Nuclear issue is very interesting. This photograph is from the L'Aquila Summit in G8, in 2009. I was invited as an energy expert, and this is the first summit for President Obama. He patted on me And I, you are the energy guy. I know energy issues very well. In the lunch, there is a good number of African leaders together. And the guy who was sitting next to me was Gaddafi. And he talked about colonialism, colonialism is the issue. And then came Obama I know Africa very well. It's the corruption is the issue, he raised, and corruption has nothing to do with the colonialism, total silence happened. Mikkel said yeah corruption corruption but the session changed from colonialism to corruption. But Gaddafi was killed by the invasion of United Nations Army and US. And that sent a terrible message to North Korea, because Gaddafi said I gave up nuclear weapon myself, and I also try to convince North Korea to do the same. But he didn't make it. And his mistake should never be repeated in Kim Jong Un's mind. So, energy issue but, nuclear is very much issue of security. Well, ladies and gentlemen, Japan should work war Together with China to the non proliferation raging, peaceful use of nuclear, this is the only way to get the trust. Japan last after the Fukushima accident about a nuclear power. We have to buy the plutonium from North Korea and this helps together with China. The nuclearlization of the Korean Peninsula. I wish that nuclear issue is not only the economy or energy but very important national security and geopolitical issue. Thank you very much for your attention. [ APPLAUSE ] [ BLANK_AUDIO ]

The Geopolitics of Energy 

Environment

A presentation by one of the world’s pre-eminent experts on energy.
